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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.